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Richard Charnin - Latest News [Page 1]
Reply to Howard Stanislevic’s Latest Article
Monday, 17 January 2011, 11:22 am | Richard Charnin
It has not escaped our attention, or that of our readers, that our last post was over a year ago, when it first became evident that New Yorkers would lose their voting system and have it replaced by a software-based system that our legal system is incapable ... More >>
2010 Senate Forecast Simulation Model
Tuesday, 7 September 2010, 5:05 pm | Richard Charnin
The 2010 Senate Forecast Simulation Model determines a forecast probability distribution of GOP gains using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. The model is based on the latest Senate polling. It assumes that the election is held today and ... More >>
Oregon Mail In Voting vs. Battleground, NY & CA
Thursday, 12 August 2010, 1:22 pm | Richard Charnin
In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%. Oregon deviated slightly from the National (48.4%) and other Battleground states (48.3%). The strong Nader vote in Oregon hurt Gore more than it did in the other battleground states. More >>
Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com
Saturday, 31 July 2010, 11:48 pm | Richard Charnin
On July 4 you wrote about the Daily Kos/ Research 2000 controversy at pollster.com . You stated that “pollsters and social scientists never have the "discretion" to simply "adjust" the substantive results of their surveys , within the margin of ... More >>
An Open Letter to Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos
Friday, 30 July 2010, 9:07 am | Richard Charnin
You have labeled discussions of election fraud a "conspiracy theory" and at one time banned those who posted on this topic. Thousands of Kossacks believe that the 2004 election was stolen and you still call these very astute posters “conspiracy theorists”. ... More >>
Zogby vs. Silver : True Vote vs. Recorded Vote
Monday, 19 July 2010, 1:36 pm | Richard Charnin
As discussed in my open letter to Nate Silver, his methodology for ranking pollsters is based on an invalid premise : that the recorded vote is an appropriate basis for measuring performance. More >>
Richard Charnin: 25 Questions for Nate Silver
Tuesday, 13 July 2010, 1:20 pm | Richard Charnin
In December 2009, you posted 20 questions for bill killers . Now I have 25 polling/math questions for you. Most are on election killers , but for variety, I included one about baseball (the 1951 Miracle of Coogan’s Bluff) and another on the JFK assassination ... More >>
Richard Charnin: An Open Letter to Nate Silver
Tuesday, 13 July 2010, 1:19 pm | Richard Charnin
Nate, since your recent hiring by the NY Times, the R2K flap and your exchanges with Zogby you have been getting lots of publicity from blogs such as vanity fair and motherjones.com . Your characterization of Zogby’s expertise says more about you ... More >>
