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JP Morgan - Latest News [Page 16]
Aus/NZ. Weekly Prospects - Aussie forecast changes
Monday, 17 August 2009, 12:55 pm | JP Morgan
After a flood of Australian economic data in recent weeks, and an avalanche of RBA commentary, the river runs dry this week. In fact, the economic data flow almost is nonexistent, with just the WMI leading index to keep the punters interested. We’re ... More >>
RBNZ on hold as fragile recovery takes hold
Monday, 17 August 2009, 12:15 pm | JP Morgan
• With further labour market deterioration, RBNZ to stay on hold through early 2010 • Upward revision to 2010 GDP growth follows upgrades to global growth • But, strong NZD limiting export-led recovery as global demand rising Following a ... More >>
Australia and New Zealand - Weekly Prospects
Monday, 10 August 2009, 12:31 pm | JP Morgan
The clear highlight in Australia last week was the shift in the RBA’s implied policy bias from easing to neutral. The tone of the policy announcement Tuesday and the quarterly statement Friday became decisively more hawkish, signalling that further ... More >>
Australia and NZ - economic data, event previews
Monday, 10 August 2009, 12:25 pm | JP Morgan
Aust. housing finance (%m/m, Jun.) -The number of home loans issued probably posted another solid gain in June, thanks to still-firm demand from first home buyers (FHBs). Since the FHBs’ grant was expanded in October, the number of FHBs in the loan market ... More >>
RBNZ on hold, but more anxious about high NZD
Thursday, 30 July 2009, 10:18 am | JP Morgan
The RBNZ this morning left the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5%, in line with our’s and market expectations, but the accompanying commentary undoubtedly was more dovish. Governor Bollard reiterated that the OCR would remain “at or below” ... More >>
OCR - more dovish; clear easing bias maintained
Thursday, 30 July 2009, 9:56 am | JP Morgan
The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%, in line with our's and market expectations. Governor Alan Bollard reiterated that the OCR would remain “at or below”current levels until the end of 2010. The statement was dovish, in fact, more dovish than ... More >>
More reasons to think OCR has bottomed
Wednesday, 29 July 2009, 3:33 pm | JP Morgan
The NBNZ business confidence survey improved again in July, remaining in positive territory for the third straight month. A net 18.7% of respondents expect business conditions to improve in the coming year - still a small portion of those surveyed, ... More >>
Trade balance back in deficit
Tuesday, 28 July 2009, 12:12 pm | JP Morgan
New Zealand’s trade balance fell into deficit in June for the first month in five, falling to –NZ$417 million (J.P. Morgan NZ$350 million, consensus NZ$215 million) from an upwardly revised surplus of NZ$907 million in May (previously NZ$858 million). ... More >>
Australia and NZ - Weekly Prospects 27 July
Monday, 27 July 2009, 12:43 pm | JP Morgan
We recently changed our RBA and RBNZ calls, removing the additional easing pencilled in for later this year and adding rate hikes from mid-2010. Last week, we became more comfortable with our revised RBA call, following the release of minutes from ... More >>
Kiwi home loan resets should ease pain
Monday, 27 July 2009, 11:04 am | JP Morgan
• RBNZ officials are “disappointed” banks are not passing on official cash rate (OCR) cuts • Fixed mortgage rates, however, are about to be reset at much lower levels • Lower effective mortgage rates and stabilization in housing market ... More >>
Australia and New Zealand - Weekly Prospects
Monday, 20 July 2009, 12:04 pm | JP Morgan
After a virtual hiatus last week, the Aussie event calendar comes back to life this week with important releases on inflation and the release of minutes from the RBA’s July Board meeting. Headline inflation probably accelerated to 0.7%q/q (consensus ... More >>
NZ's retail sales numbers unlikely to be sustained
Monday, 13 July 2009, 2:07 pm | JP Morgan
Retail sales values in New Zealand were unexpectedly strong in May, rising 0.8% (J.P. Morgan -0.2%, consensus 0.2%), making the largest monthly increase since November 2007 and beating all market economists’ expectations. Indeed, the strength in spending ... More >>
Australia and New Zealand - Weekly Prospects
Friday, 3 July 2009, 2:01 pm | JP Morgan
It is even more difficult to gauge the resilience of the Aussie consumer after the mixed bag of data this week; the retail and credit numbers told conflicting stories. The real test for the consumer will come in 2H09 when the fiscal stimulus fades against ... More >>
New Zealand's annual trade deficit
Monday, 29 June 2009, 1:10 pm | JP Morgan
New Zealand’s trade balance remained in surplus for the fourth straight month in May, widening markedly to NZ$858 million (J.P. Morgan NZ$150 million, consensus NZ$250 million) from an upwardly revised NZ$319 million in April. The rise in the surplus, ... More >>
JP Morgan Economic Data and Events Previews
Monday, 29 June 2009, 1:05 pm | JP Morgan
Aust. HIA new home sales (%m/m, May) - Home sales probably rose 2.0% in May owing mainly to the positive impact of the expanded first home buyers’ grant, improved affordability and the government’s cash handouts. More >>
JP Morgan Weekly Prospects
Monday, 29 June 2009, 12:59 pm | JP Morgan
Australia’s economic data flow resumes in earnest this week, with reports on retail sales, credit, home building and sales, and trade. The May retail and credit reports, in particular, will be important measures of the strength of the household sector’s ... More >>
Imports plummet, current account deficit narrows
Thursday, 25 June 2009, 11:48 am | JP Morgan
Current account deficit fell in 1Q09 Huge fall in imports a sign of ailing domestic demand Despite positive contribution from trade, two more quarters of recession expected In the year to March, New Zealand’s current account deficit fell to NZ$15.2 (non-seasonally ... More >>
Retail sales slightly firmer on car sales
Friday, 12 June 2009, 11:49 am | JP Morgan
Retail sales values in New Zealand were up 0.5%m/m in April (J.P. Morgan 0.1%, consensus 0.2%), after falling 0.2% in the previous month. Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) reported that retail sales increased in 14 of the 24 store categories, led by a 3.5%m/m rise ... More >>
Australia and New Zealand - Weekly Prospects
Tuesday, 9 June 2009, 12:31 pm | JP Morgan
The highlight in Australia last week undoubtedly was the 1Q GDP report. The economy skirted recession, technically at least, but mainly because of a sharp fall in import volumes The plunge in imports is a symptom of firms slashing investment; this has ... More >>
RBNZ inflation expectations
Tuesday, 26 May 2009, 4:35 pm | JP Morgan
The RBNZ reported today that inflation expectations fell in the June quarter, but only modestly. The 67 business managers surveyed by the RBNZ expect inflation to average 2.2%oya in two years’ time, only slightly lower than the 2.3% recorded ... More >>
