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JP Morgan - Latest News [Page 18]
Business confidence at 35-year low
Tuesday, 7 April 2009, 11:23 am | JP Morgan
Business confidence at 35-year low; prolonged recession expected •Business confidence fell to a 35-year low •Rate of labour shedding to accelerate •RBNZ to cut OCR on April 30 The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) released today ... More >>
Australia and New Zealand - Weekly Prospects
Monday, 6 April 2009, 12:00 pm | JP Morgan
• The key event in Australia this week is the RBA decision on Tuesday; our forecast calls for a 50bp cut to the cash rate. We acknowledge that the decision is a close call, just as it was at the last Board meeting in March. Indeed, we would not be ... More >>
Business Confidence Slightly Improved
Tuesday, 31 March 2009, 4:23 pm | JP Morgan
· Business confidence improved marginally · Firms’ own activity expectations worsened · RBNZ to deliver further cuts to OCR More >>
Australia and NZ - economic data and event preview
Monday, 30 March 2009, 12:11 pm | JP Morgan
Australia Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino - The title of the Deputy’s speech to the UDIA National Congress in Brisbane is “An Update on the Economy and Financial Developments”. This leaves the Deputy Governor effectively with a blank ... More >>
Australia and New Zealand - Weekly Prospects
Monday, 30 March 2009, 12:07 pm | JP Morgan
After a quiet week for economic data in Australia last week, the data-flow picks up this week with February credit, retail sales, building approvals, and trade figures. It will be interesting, in particular, to gauge consumer behaviour in February ahead ... More >>
NZ Economy Contracts 0.9% in 4 Quarter
Friday, 27 March 2009, 12:23 pm | JP Morgan
· The economy contracted 0.9%q/q in 4Q, in line with our expectation · Recession to extend for at least another two quarters · Trade balance returns to surplus More >>
Current account deficit to 8.9% of GDP last year
Thursday, 26 March 2009, 3:53 pm | JP Morgan
In the year to December, New Zealand's current account deficit widened to a new record high of NZ$16.1 billion, from a revised NZ$15.5 billion in the year to December 2007. As a share of GDP, the deficit expanded to a colossal 8.9% in the year to the December ... More >>
consumer confidence tumbled amid recession fears
Wednesday, 25 March 2009, 3:29 pm | JP Morgan
The Westpac McDermott-Miller consumer confidence index fell to 96.0 in 1Q09 (J.P.Morgan 97.0), from 101.3 in 4Q08. This was the second lowest reading on confidence since 1998. The lowest reading was in the June quarter last year, when the index slumped ... More >>
Australia and New Zealand - Weekly Prospects
Monday, 23 March 2009, 12:42 pm | JP Morgan
The highlight in Australia last week was the release of the minutes from the RBA’s Board meeting. The minutes revealed that the decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.25% was a close call, with Board members seeing “reasonable cases” for a ... More >>
Housing Starts In Steepest Decline Since 2000
Friday, 20 March 2009, 10:27 am | JP Morgan
The number of housing starts slumped 9.9%q/q in 4Q, after falling a revised 8.9% in 3Q (previously -10.7%). The fall was the largest decline since the September quarter 2000, when starts plummeted 35%q/q owing, in part, to a change in the tax regime. ... More >>
Australian Economic Update : RBA Board minutes
Tuesday, 17 March 2009, 2:55 pm | JP Morgan
The Reserve Bank today released minutes from the March 3 Board meeting, at which the cash rate was held steady at 3.25%. The minutes reveal that the decision was a close call, with Board members seeing "reasonable cases" for a rate cut and for ... More >>
Retail Sales Values Slump
Friday, 13 March 2009, 1:30 pm | JP Morgan
Retail sales values in New Zealand slumped 1.1%m/m in January (J.P.Morgan 0.0%, consensus -0.1%) after falling 0.7% in December (revised up from -1.0%). The decline was driven by a sharp fall in vehicle-related industries, with car sales down 11%m/m and automotive ... More >>
terminal cash rate now forecast at 2.5%
Thursday, 12 March 2009, 10:53 am | JP Morgan
The RBNZ today cut the official cash rate (OCR) 50bp to 3.0% (J.P.Morgan -100bp, consensus -50bp). In our view, the RBNZ’s job is not yet done, but future rate cuts will be much smaller than those recently delivered. We look for back-to-back ... More >>
Third Monthly Decline In Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, 11 March 2009, 1:25 pm | JP Morgan
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute (WMI) consumer confidence index fell just 0.2%m/m in March, after slumping 4.6% in February. The third straight monthly decline was milder than we had expected, given the survey was conducted last week amid an avalanche ... More >>
Australian Economic Update
Thursday, 5 March 2009, 3:28 pm | JP Morgan
The ABS this morning released data on building approvals and trade for the month of January. The fall in building approvals was in line with our forecast, but the trade surplus narrowed more than we had anticipated, owing to a sharp fall in exports. More >>
Australia Drops Into The Recession
Wednesday, 4 March 2009, 5:11 pm | JP Morgan
Today’s GDP report for the December quarter showed the economy contracted for the first time in eight years. It seems, therefore, that we have entered our first recession since the early 1990s. Australia’s economy unexpectedly shrank 0.5%q/q in 4Q (J.P.Morgan ... More >>
JP Morgan Australia Report
Tuesday, 3 March 2009, 3:35 pm | JP Morgan
Australia’s current account deficit narrowed much more than expected in 4Q, owing mainly to an improvement in the trade balance. The current account deficit fell to -A$6.5 billion (J.P.Morgan -A$7.8 billion, consensus -A$7.4 billion) from -A$9.5 ... More >>
Value Of Retail Sales Growing
Tuesday, 3 March 2009, 2:59 pm | JP Morgan
The value of Australia's retail sales grew 0.2%m/m in January (J.P.Morgan 0.8%, consensus -0.5%), after the fiscal stimulus-induced 3.8% surge in December. The rise in sales in January may owe something to leakage of spending into January in response ... More >>
Australia and New Zealand - Weekly Prospects
Monday, 2 March 2009, 12:32 pm | JP Morgan
• Tuesday’s RBA Board decision is a very close call—we favour a 50bp rate cut, but without our usual high level of conviction. RBA officials have indicated that the main drivers of monetary policy are offshore events, and the news from overseas ... More >>
Business confidence weakens
Thursday, 26 February 2009, 3:47 pm | JP Morgan
The NBNZ business confidence survey worsened to -41.2 in February, falling from -35.0 in December. There was no survey conducted in January. The headline reading suggested that a net 41.2% of respondents expect business conditions to worsen in the coming ... More >>
