Celebrating 25 Years of Scoop
Scoop InfoPages
This InfoPage in unregistered, if this is your news page register Kiwi Economics for InfoPages here.
Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 1]
The RBNZ Cuts, Because It Was The Right Thing To Do. And It’s The Magnitude That Matters Most.
Wednesday, 14 August 2024, 7:26 pm | Kiwi Economics
It’s the magnitude of rate cuts that impacts business decisions, and household confidence. We forecast, with a much greater degree of confidence, that 2025 will be a better year than 2024, and let’s put 2023 behind us. More >>
The Regions Show Signs Of Recovery. 2025 Will Be Better. Wellington Has Been Hit The Hardest.
Saturday, 10 August 2024, 4:26 pm | Kiwi Economics
Looking ahead, inflation is easing, interest rates will fall, and business confidence should strengthen. Spring is coming, and most regions will defrost. More >>
There’s More Slack In The Labour Market, As We Get Paid More Per Hour, But Get Fewer Hours
Wednesday, 7 August 2024, 2:36 pm | Kiwi Economics
Another surprise was the lift in the labour participation rate. After hitting a record high of 72.4% in June 2023, the participation rate had begun its descent. More >>
The Kiwi Labour Market Is Softening, Following A Recession. Unemployment Continues To Climb
Friday, 2 August 2024, 5:25 pm | Kiwi Economics
By our calculations, the unemployment rate likely lifted to 4.7% from 4.3%. That would mark the highest rate since the end of 2020. After being stuck at record low levels of 3.2%, the unemployment rate began to climb in June last year. More >>
The Pressure For RBNZ Rate Cuts Is Mounting, As Rates Markets Collapse
Tuesday, 30 July 2024, 6:48 pm | Kiwi Economics
Market traders are now pricing 15bps of cuts in August. That’s a 60% chance of a rate cut in just a couple weeks’ time. And looking ahead, traders have priced in just over 75bps of cuts by November. That’s a whopping 3 cuts (see the COTW). More >>
One Small Step For Inflation, One Giant Leap From The Peak
Wednesday, 17 July 2024, 4:45 pm | Kiwi Economics
We still think inflation is on track to fall below 3% in the current (September) quarter. And today’s progress on core inflation has us growing in confidence that the RBNZ’s 2% target will be achieved in 2025. More >>
The RBNZ Deliberately Softened Their Language, A Touch. We’re More Convinced Of A Cut In Nov.
Saturday, 13 July 2024, 2:08 pm | Kiwi Economics
Another MPR, and another hold. As expected, the RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50%. But importantly, we finally got a noticeable softening in tone. It was a welcome shift given the total collapse in business confidence last week. Enough is enough ... More >>
The Kiwi Currency Continues To Consolidate, With Captivating Carry. We’re Still Targeting 57c.
Thursday, 4 July 2024, 6:07 pm | Kiwi Economics
The downward glidepath for the Kiwi flyer will eventually help our exporters, with tourism and agriculture in need of a boost. More >>
Business Confidence Has Deteriorated, Again. RBNZ Rate Cuts Are Required, To Avoid Economic Scarring
Tuesday, 2 July 2024, 2:39 pm | Kiwi Economics
The NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion (QSBO), the best on the street, shows a clear deterioration in expectations. More >>
Elections Loom Large With Losses On The Left And A Leaning To Largesse. Inflation Is The Key For Policy.
Monday, 1 July 2024, 6:30 pm | Kiwi Economics
2024 is the year of elections. Over 80 countries – more than half of the world’s population – will head to the polls this year. More >>
Survive ‘til 25: It’s A White-Knuckle Ride. We’ve Updated Our Forecasts.
Saturday, 29 June 2024, 3:50 pm | Kiwi Economics
Over the past 18 months, the economy has been at a standstill, recording a double-dip recession. And the forward-looking indicators point to an economy that will struggle to eke out much growth in 2024. More >>
We Climbed Out Of A Recession. But Growth Is Weak.
Thursday, 27 June 2024, 5:08 am | Kiwi Economics
The Kiwi economy expanded 0.2% over the March quarter. It might be a positive print, but the details were weak, very weak. More >>
We May Have Popped Out Of A Double Dip Recession, But We’re Still Struggling…
Sunday, 23 June 2024, 6:23 pm | Kiwi Economics
The Kiwi economy expanded 0.2% over the March quarter. It follows the technical recession over the second half of 2024. We may officially be out of recession, but the economy remains in a soft state. More >>
Budget 2024: Delivering On Promises – Just – While Standing On Quicksand
Thursday, 30 May 2024, 5:58 pm | Kiwi Economics
Budget 2024 delivers on election promises, just. Fiscal neutrality was a key consideration, as revenue projections suffer from a bleaker reality. More >>
The Chance Of A Recession Increases As Business Confidence Hits An All-time Low.
Tuesday, 17 January 2023, 12:45 pm | Kiwi Economics
The chance of a recession increases as business confidence hits an all-time low. Mary Jo Vergara, Economist & Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist & Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist Published on 17 January Business confidence was shattered ... More >>
Budget 2022 Is All About Health, Climate And The Cost-of-living. But Can It Deliver Without Fueling Even More Inflation?
Thursday, 19 May 2022, 7:17 pm | Kiwi Economics
The 2022 Budget was delivered against a gloomier backdrop. The latest forecasts suggest more subdued growth, more persistent inflation, and further tightening in the labour market. The headline numbers provided little surprise. The Government ... More >>
