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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 1]
Forecast Update: We’re Feeling Our Way Through
Monday, 16 June 2025, 8:18 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks into the reversal in the manufacturing PMI, here at home. After four straight months of signalling expansion, the index is back in contractionary territory. More >>
We're In The Eye Of The Storm, As Tailwinds Become Headwinds
Monday, 9 June 2025, 8:29 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the slowdown in US output, but rise in inflationary pressure. More >>
May Is Over, The Mayhem Is Not, And Markets Are Muddled
Tuesday, 3 June 2025, 12:02 pm | Kiwi Economics
Tariff volatility continues to dominate financial markets. The RBNZ’s latest statement alone mentioned the word uncertain, or some or a form of it, 164 times across their 60 or so page statement. More >>
The RBNZ Has Seen Enough To Cut More, But Not Enough To Do Enough
Wednesday, 28 May 2025, 6:34 pm | Kiwi Economics
The weakness in the economy is clear and demands more attention and less restriction. With all the risks offshore, think Trumpian tariffs, and the pain still felt onshore, there’s a good argument to be made for taking policy into stimulatory territory. More >>
25 And Not Done. The RBNZ Has More Work To Do. More Cuts Are Required.
Friday, 23 May 2025, 6:35 pm | Kiwi Economics
The weakness in the economy is clear and demands more attention and less restriction. With all the risks offshore, think Trumpian tariffs, and the pain still felt onshore, there’s a good argument to be made for taking policy into stimulatory territory ... More >>
The “Growth” Budget In A Shrinking World
Thursday, 22 May 2025, 7:17 pm | Kiwi Economics
As well-telegraphed ahead of the big day, Budget 2025 revealed an economic outlook hampered by global uncertainty, resulting in a weaker fiscal outlook with a focus on consolidation. More >>
Deal Or No Deal: Dealing With The Cards Trump Dealt
Monday, 12 May 2025, 8:16 pm | Kiwi Economics
In some good news, we got the first trade ‘deal’ out of the US last week. The UK was lucky first, and managed to negotiate down the tariffs on steel and autos. Other countries running a trade surplus with the US, however, may not get as good. More >>
We’re Twiddling Our Thumbs, Waiting For Deals To Be Done. Right Now, We’re Only Getting Crumbs
Monday, 5 May 2025, 7:25 pm | Kiwi Economics
Locally, the focus is on labour market data – out Wednesday. By our calculations, the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 5.3% - the highest since 2016. More >>
It’s Mayhem, It's Messy And It’s Melodramatic
Monday, 28 April 2025, 5:46 pm | Kiwi Economics
The prospect of a global trade war will likely keep downward pressure on prices. Whether that’s a consequence of a slowdown in global economic growth or a diversion of trade marked at a discount. See our COTW for more. More >>
Kiss The Ring... Trade Negotiations Are Critical
Tuesday, 15 April 2025, 8:50 pm | Kiwi Economics
Financial markets were incredibly volatile. Risk assets were dumped and refuge sought – but not in the traditional places. See our COTW for more on the market mayhem. More >>
We’re Moving Forward To The Past, And Calling For A 2.5% Cash Rate, As We Were Last Year
Wednesday, 9 April 2025, 8:17 pm | Kiwi Economics
The outlook is weaker and global risks are escalating. The current environment simply demands more rate relief. And the Reserve Bank has rightly pronounced scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate. More >>
Business Confidence May Have Improved, But They Don’t Like Uncertainty. And Trump Revels In Uncertainty
Wednesday, 9 April 2025, 6:49 pm | Kiwi Economics
The violent volatility in markets happened after this survey was taken. What will firms make of the Trump tariff turmoil? Too much? Too soon? Too bad... which ain't good. Uncertainty kills growth. More >>
It’s Mayhem In Markets As Downside Risks Dominate Following Trump’s Tariffs
Monday, 7 April 2025, 7:24 pm | Kiwi Economics
A hundred years of reducing tariffs, and globalisation, is now reversing. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs will take the average rate of tariffs to the highest level since 1906, before the first world war. More >>
Baked Into The Cake, We Await Another Rate Cut. RBNZ To Deliver 25bps
Thursday, 3 April 2025, 8:53 pm | Kiwi Economics
A 25bp cut in April is “baked into the cake” so to speak. The rates market is perfectly priced, so we’re unlikely to see much reaction. And if rates won’t react, then neither should the currency. It’s offshore developments, namely tariff ... More >>
Trump Tariffs Have Been Fool Of Surprises. What’s In The Cards For April 2nd?
Monday, 31 March 2025, 7:55 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the latest monthly jobs data from Stats NZ. After some hefty declines over 2024, the pace of job losses continues to flatten out. We're slowly crawling out of recession, but it'll take time and more sustained demand before we ... More >>
Wobbly Confidence: We Hit 55c On Tariff Turmoil. Now, Where Will The Kiwi Go?
Friday, 28 March 2025, 9:03 pm | Kiwi Economics
It’s hard to argue against current market pricing. A 3% terminal cash rate is almost perfectly priced. Short-end rates are well-anchored. Should more stimulatory policy be required, there’s scope for interest rates to move lower, and the Kiwi to test ... More >>
Back To Black. Services Are Lifting As Our Economy Crawls Out Of Recession
Thursday, 20 March 2025, 7:06 pm | Kiwi Economics
And for the first time in two years, activity on a per capita (per person) basis lifted, up 0.4%. On an annual basis however, things are less rosy. Compared to December 2023, the economy is still 1.1% smaller, in aggregate, while output shrunk 2.2% on ... More >>
The First Step In A Tentative Recovery
Sunday, 16 March 2025, 10:09 pm | Kiwi Economics
The outlook is improving, with more rate relief on the way. We expect momentum to build as we approach a more neutral rate environment. However, growing global downside risks could pose a headwind for the Kiwi economy’s recovery. More >>
Adrian Is Out, With An Orr-fully Abrupt Exit. Let’s Move On. There’s “Opportunity” To Improve Here
Monday, 10 March 2025, 9:10 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the latest retail sales numbers for the end of 2024. An increase in discretionary spend over the quarter saw retail sales up 0.9%, while weaker spending earlier in the year saw sales remain relatively flat over the year. More >>
Trumpian Tariffs And Tough Talk Generate Geopolitical Jitters
Monday, 3 March 2025, 10:13 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the latest retail sales numbers for the end of 2024. An increase in discretionary spend over the quarter saw retail sales up 0.9%, while weaker spending earlier in the year saw sales remain relatively flat over the year. More >>
