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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 1]
Unemployed For A Long Time, Not A Good Time
Wednesday, 4 November 2026, 2:17 pm | Kiwi Economics
The data for the September quarter shows that the Kiwi economy is hurting. The unemployment rate increased from 5.6% to 5.7%, defying both our optimistic expectations and the market’s. More >>
Initial Thoughts: Worse Than We Expected, Long Term Unemployment Raising Alarm Bells
Wednesday, 4 November 2026, 11:27 am | Kiwi Economics
Filled jobs fell by 0.2% compared to the September of 2025, and there was a 0.1% in filled jobs compared to the June quarter – this is not what we expected based on monthly filled jobs data. More >>
Pressing Pause On Interest Rate Hikes. New Zealand Isn’t Alone
Monday, 2 November 2026, 11:04 am | Kiwi Economics
The Reserve Bank gave us an early Christmas present last week by keeping the cash rate on hold at 2.75%. It was an unexpected pause. More >>
A Reprieve In The Labour Market That’s Too Early To Celebrate
Friday, 30 October 2026, 2:17 pm | Kiwi Economics
We expect unemployment to have peeled back a bit in the September quarter, to 5.4% (down from 5.6% in the June quarter). With growth in the participation rate to 70.9% (up from 70.7%), alongside a rise in employed workers of 0.6%. More >>
Kiwibank Economists' Initial Thoughts: September Quarter CPI
Friday, 23 October 2026, 3:22 pm | Kiwi Economics
Headline inflation is lower than it was in the June quarter, but more importantly, core inflation is not higher, at 2.9%. We’re happy to see that. Most of the price growth measured in the headline is coming from offshore still. More >>
The RBNZ Can Give Some Certainty Amidst Global Uncertainty. Hike Then Hold… Then “get On With It”
Friday, 23 October 2026, 12:50 pm | Kiwi Economics
Photo/Supplied The RBNZ face into the same global uncertainty faced into by many Kiwi businesses and households. Energy prices are a problem. Oil has spiked back into unwanted territory, and it’s tough to pass onto hypersensitive consumers. ... More >>
Aussie Unemployment Surprise, We Keep Our Eye On The Prize
Monday, 19 October 2026, 11:39 am | Kiwi Economics
Australia had a shock to contend with last week. Labour market data across the Tasman showed their unemployment rate reaching a 5-year high (highest since 2021) of 4.7%. More >>
Importing The Pain, Exporting The Gain
Friday, 16 October 2026, 1:05 pm | Kiwi Economics
Businesses have been reporting a desire to increase prices, as operating costs have pushed higher. More >>
Don't Look Down, Look Up
Monday, 12 October 2026, 11:36 am | Kiwi Economics
Business activity was down, and domestic demand was a major constraint. At the same time, business owners are more optimistic… more than they have been since 2014. It is a striking contrast given the ‘meh’ September quarter that has been. More >>
Domestic Growth Slows; International Inflation Grows
Monday, 14 September 2026, 1:38 pm | Kiwi Economics
The latest New Zealand business financial data brought good news. The second quarter of the year saw business sales, purchases, wages, and operating profit all improve. More >>
Jet Fuel Soaring, Population Stalling
Monday, 24 August 2026, 12:47 pm | Kiwi Economics
Consumer spending rebounded strongly after a weak June, suggesting household demand is improving. Increased spending was evident in hospitality, durables, apparel and consumables. More >>
Tourists Flocking, Inflation Dropping
Monday, 17 August 2026, 11:44 am | Kiwi Economics
The easing of inflation expectations is exactly what the Reserve Bank was hoping to see when they embarked on their hiking expedition. More >>
Weak Labour Market With A Side Of Rate Hikes
Monday, 10 August 2026, 12:59 pm | Kiwi Economics
Labour market data for the June quarter was both surprising and mixed. Unemployment was 5.6%, higher than market expectations, and a significant step above our optimistic forecast of 5.3%. More >>
Frosty Unemployment Bites. Wage Growth Frozen Solid.
Wednesday, 5 August 2026, 3:07 pm | Kiwi Economics
While the unemployment rate rising is worrying, we are more concerned with the underutilisation rate. This increased to 13.8%, from 12.9% in March. More >>
Dancing On Thin Ice
Tuesday, 4 August 2026, 8:59 am | Kiwi Economics
We’re looking forward to June quarter labour market data out this Wednesday. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, at 5.3%. That’s slightly below the RBNZ’s forecast. But we are not out of the woods yet. More >>
When Geopolitical Conflict Knocks, It’s Too Late To Prepare
Friday, 31 July 2026, 11:27 am | Kiwi Economics
The June quarter inflation rate was uncomfortably above the RBNZ’s target band. This puts a spotlight on the labour market. More slack means less inflationary pressure on wages. More >>
Rainy Day Savings & Price Growth Ravings
Monday, 27 July 2026, 3:39 pm | Kiwi Economics
The cost of living crisis continues to drag its heels, much to the dismay of Kiwi households. Energy prices remain high, both for vehicle fuels and household energy. More >>
Economic Recovery Not The Driver Of Prices
Monday, 20 July 2026, 3:53 pm | Kiwi Economics
The important part, from the RBNZ’s perspective, is the domestic (non-tradable) component of inflation. Domestic generated inflation will show how much (if any) of the fuel price increases are passing into local prices. More >>
Spike, Dig, Pass: Inflation Will Rise, But We’ll Dig In Until It Passes
Friday, 17 July 2026, 12:51 pm | Kiwi Economics
The June quarter inflation numbers will be ugly. That’s to be expected. The oil supply shock eased off a little in June, but not enough ease inflation fears. The consensus view is that June quarter inflation will print between 3.9% and 4.2%. March ... More >>
Cautious Optimism: Confidence Rises While Costs Creep Higher
Wednesday, 15 July 2026, 1:57 pm | Kiwi Economics
Business confidence has broadly improved in the June quarter, with a net 12% of businesses expecting better conditions in the coming months. This stands in stark contrast to the 1% of businesses expecting better conditions ahead in the March quarter. More >>
