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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 1]
Kiss The Ring... Trade Negotiations Are Critical
Tuesday, 15 April 2025, 8:50 pm | Kiwi Economics
Financial markets were incredibly volatile. Risk assets were dumped and refuge sought – but not in the traditional places. See our COTW for more on the market mayhem. More >>
We’re Moving Forward To The Past, And Calling For A 2.5% Cash Rate, As We Were Last Year
Wednesday, 9 April 2025, 8:17 pm | Kiwi Economics
The outlook is weaker and global risks are escalating. The current environment simply demands more rate relief. And the Reserve Bank has rightly pronounced scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate. More >>
Business Confidence May Have Improved, But They Don’t Like Uncertainty. And Trump Revels In Uncertainty
Wednesday, 9 April 2025, 6:49 pm | Kiwi Economics
The violent volatility in markets happened after this survey was taken. What will firms make of the Trump tariff turmoil? Too much? Too soon? Too bad... which ain't good. Uncertainty kills growth. More >>
It’s Mayhem In Markets As Downside Risks Dominate Following Trump’s Tariffs
Monday, 7 April 2025, 7:24 pm | Kiwi Economics
A hundred years of reducing tariffs, and globalisation, is now reversing. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs will take the average rate of tariffs to the highest level since 1906, before the first world war. More >>
Baked Into The Cake, We Await Another Rate Cut. RBNZ To Deliver 25bps
Thursday, 3 April 2025, 8:53 pm | Kiwi Economics
A 25bp cut in April is “baked into the cake” so to speak. The rates market is perfectly priced, so we’re unlikely to see much reaction. And if rates won’t react, then neither should the currency. It’s offshore developments, namely tariff ... More >>
Trump Tariffs Have Been Fool Of Surprises. What’s In The Cards For April 2nd?
Monday, 31 March 2025, 7:55 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the latest monthly jobs data from Stats NZ. After some hefty declines over 2024, the pace of job losses continues to flatten out. We're slowly crawling out of recession, but it'll take time and more sustained demand before we ... More >>
Wobbly Confidence: We Hit 55c On Tariff Turmoil. Now, Where Will The Kiwi Go?
Friday, 28 March 2025, 9:03 pm | Kiwi Economics
It’s hard to argue against current market pricing. A 3% terminal cash rate is almost perfectly priced. Short-end rates are well-anchored. Should more stimulatory policy be required, there’s scope for interest rates to move lower, and the Kiwi to test ... More >>
Back To Black. Services Are Lifting As Our Economy Crawls Out Of Recession
Thursday, 20 March 2025, 7:06 pm | Kiwi Economics
And for the first time in two years, activity on a per capita (per person) basis lifted, up 0.4%. On an annual basis however, things are less rosy. Compared to December 2023, the economy is still 1.1% smaller, in aggregate, while output shrunk 2.2% on ... More >>
The First Step In A Tentative Recovery
Sunday, 16 March 2025, 10:09 pm | Kiwi Economics
The outlook is improving, with more rate relief on the way. We expect momentum to build as we approach a more neutral rate environment. However, growing global downside risks could pose a headwind for the Kiwi economy’s recovery. More >>
Adrian Is Out, With An Orr-fully Abrupt Exit. Let’s Move On. There’s “Opportunity” To Improve Here
Monday, 10 March 2025, 9:10 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the latest retail sales numbers for the end of 2024. An increase in discretionary spend over the quarter saw retail sales up 0.9%, while weaker spending earlier in the year saw sales remain relatively flat over the year. More >>
Trumpian Tariffs And Tough Talk Generate Geopolitical Jitters
Monday, 3 March 2025, 10:13 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the latest retail sales numbers for the end of 2024. An increase in discretionary spend over the quarter saw retail sales up 0.9%, while weaker spending earlier in the year saw sales remain relatively flat over the year. More >>
The RBNZ Cuts And Signals More, Sooner. We're Now On The Same Page
Monday, 24 February 2025, 5:14 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the latest REINZ update of the Kiwi housing market. Activity remains subdued over January. House prices eked out a small gain, and sales are still on the mend. More >>
Completing A Hattrick. The RBNZ Goes 50bps Again, With More Cuts To Come.
Wednesday, 19 February 2025, 5:03 pm | Kiwi Economics
It's a confidence game. It's all about confidence. And we expect the lift in confidence to persist, and eventually feed into activity, profitability, hiring and investment. We're more confident in the recovery. More >>
A Rate Cut Here, Another Cut There, Lower Rates Are Nice And Clear
Monday, 17 February 2025, 8:51 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the RBNZ’s latest survey of inflation expectations, which remain anchored at 2%. It’s a win in the inflation fight and certainly supports the RBNZ’s credibility. More >>
50 And Not Done. The RBNZ Has More Work To Do. More Cuts Are Required
Thursday, 13 February 2025, 7:49 pm | Kiwi Economics
We think 2025 will be the year the RBNZ dips a little lower. A bit like a conga line of policymakers bending backwards under a Limbo bar. We hope they get under the 3% notch. More >>
A Tale Of Two Labour Markets
Monday, 10 February 2025, 7:21 pm | Kiwi Economics
The Kiwi labour market report for the December quarter was ugly. The unemployment rate rose from 4.8% to 5.1% - the highest in four years. The labour force participation rate also continued to normalise from record high levels, falling to 71%. More >>
Trials And Tribulations: Trump’s Tit-for-tat Tariff Tussle Troubles Trade… We Focus On Employment At Home
Monday, 3 February 2025, 8:38 pm | Kiwi Economics
This week, our focus turns to the Kiwi labour market, data out Wednesday. And we expect a continued loosening in conditions. By our calculations, the unemployment rate likely lifted to 5.1% from 4.8% - the highest rate in four years. More >>
The Economy Goes Down, Unemployment Goes Up
Friday, 31 January 2025, 5:30 pm | Kiwi Economics
The jobs data is a key statistic before the February MPS. Our forecasts are largely in line with the RBNZ’s latest projections. With the 2% target inflation rate virtually reached and core inflation also trending lower, we believe the RBNZ needs to return ... More >>
Trump Volatility Hangs In The Air, While The Kiwi Economy Is In Repair
Tuesday, 28 January 2025, 8:21 pm | Kiwi Economics
We believe more needs to be done to stimulate the recovery into 2026 and beyond. We believe the inflation problem is no more. We believe households and businesses need rate relief. And we believe the RBNZ will be forced (once again) to deliver ... More >>
2% So Close You Can Almost Taste It.
Wednesday, 22 January 2025, 7:00 pm | Kiwi Economics
We believe more needs to be done to stimulate the recovery into 2026 and beyond. We believe the inflation problem is no more. We believe households and businesses need rate relief. And we believe the RBNZ will be forced (once again) to deliver ... More >>
