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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 1]
We Have A Higher Hill, But We're Falling Faster. We're Snowballing.
Thursday, 19 December 2024, 8:29 pm | Kiwi Economics
Excluding Covid periods, the Kiwi economy recorded the weakest 6month period since 1991. And weakness is spreading across most industries. More >>
The Government’s Books Are Hard To Balance. Lower Productivity, Lower Tax, Higher Spend
Tuesday, 17 December 2024, 8:08 pm | Kiwi Economics
It is hard for the Government, any Government, to balance the books of an economy in recession. And the forecasts have been hamstrung by poor productivity. We’re not getting bang for buck. And we’re not getting back to surplus, anytime soon. More >>
Pick A Path: ‘Alive In 25’ Or ‘Thrive In 25’. Here’s Our Outlook For 2025 And Beyond
Saturday, 14 December 2024, 2:57 pm | Kiwi Economics
It’s a confidence game. It’s all about confidence. And we expect the lift in confidence to persist, and eventually feed into activity, profitability, hiring and investment. We’re more confident in the recovery. More >>
Keep Calm And Carry Kiwi. We Hit 58c, On Track For 57c... Will We Hit 55c?
Thursday, 12 December 2024, 5:02 pm | Kiwi Economics
The RBNZ will cut another 50bp cut in February, and another 25bp in either April or May. That’s fine. That’s priced. But it’s the inevitable move to 3% that’s not priced. And if we’re right, we’ll see the Kiwi currency crumble towards 55 ... More >>
From Material To Memorable: Beyond Black Friday
Wednesday, 11 December 2024, 9:20 pm | Kiwi Economics
Beyond the usual ups and downs in spend in any given year, underlying consumer behaviour is shifting. Kiwi want experiences over physical products. We overconsumed over covid. But now we prefer buying concerts over Converse and coffee over couches. More >>
Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch Changes In Commercial Property. Turn And Face The Strange
Saturday, 7 December 2024, 7:31 pm | Kiwi Economics
The outlook is for a mixed recovery across commercial property. A lower interest rate environment will drive the recovery in part. But the structural changes in demand will continue to exert pressure and weigh on different sectors with varying impacts. More >>
‘Alive: In 25’ Or ‘Thrive In 25’? Here’s Our Interest Rate Forecasts
Monday, 2 December 2024, 7:13 pm | Kiwi Economics
We need to see rates pulled lower over 2025, if the current lift in confidence is going to translate into activity, and then investment and hiring intentions. More >>
Done But Not Dusted. Rate Cuts Will Continue In 2025.
Monday, 2 December 2024, 7:10 pm | Kiwi Economics
The Kiwi economy is still in a recessionary environment. Consumer confidence is starting to pick up now with the rate cutting cycle underway. But it will take time to see this translate through to sales as households recuperate their savings. More >>
The RBNZ Cuts 50bps, With More Cuts To Come. But The End Game Is Higher
Wednesday, 27 November 2024, 8:41 pm | Kiwi Economics
Anything other than a 50bp would have been a shock, and hard to explain. More >>
The Final Countdown To The Final Rate Decision Of 2024
Monday, 25 November 2024, 11:20 am | Kiwi Economics
The updated economic projections may also show a faster turnaround in economic growth compared to their last set of forecasts. Again, the outlook has improved marginally given the RBNZ has delivered more easing than expected. More >>
Inflation Expectations Up, Net Migration Down, Housing Staggers Sideways
Tuesday, 19 November 2024, 8:45 am | Kiwi Economics
The RBNZ has kept the Kiwi economy in a chokehold over the past couple of years to kill inflation. But now, the inflation beast has been slayed. And we need the RBNZ to loosen its grip fast – before doing any more unnecessary damage to the economy. More >>
Much More Mayhem In Markets, Maybe. Event Risks All Over The Show
Monday, 4 November 2024, 8:07 pm | Kiwi Economics
Rates markets are pricing in a bit more growth and a bit more inflation over the longer term. Some of that move reflects central bank easing. Cutting interest rates generates more growth and inflation. And some of that move reflects the risk of inflationary ... More >>
“The Global Battle Against Inflation Is Almost Won”
Thursday, 31 October 2024, 8:15 pm | Kiwi Economics
The IMF made no change to its global growth forecasts. The global economy is still expected to grow 3.2% this year and next, which the IMF describes as “stable yet underwhelming”. More >>
A Long Time Coming. Inflation Is Back Within The Band
Monday, 21 October 2024, 9:41 pm | Kiwi Economics
Tradables is the reason inflation has returned to 2%. And the eventual normalisation in domestic price pressures is why we see 2% sustained in the medium-term. More >>
The Cost-of-living Crisis Is Coming To An End, With Inflation Back Within The RBNZ’s Target Band
Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 3:50 pm | Kiwi Economics
Policy settings are still restrictive, but more interest rate cuts are coming. We expect another 50bp cut in Nov. Falling inflation, and falling interest rates will help household budgets, and business opex. More >>
Closing In On The 2% Target
Friday, 11 October 2024, 5:05 pm | Kiwi Economics
We now see inflation falling closer to the midpoint of the target band. Because recent monthly price data have shown that strong downward momentum in imported inflation continues. Falling petrol prices leads the way. More >>
Tack And Jibe Like An AC75. The RBNZ Delivers 50bp!
Wednesday, 9 October 2024, 5:20 pm | Kiwi Economics
The market reaction was relatively muted given that the outsized move was largely priced. An already soft Kiwi dollar was pushed slightly lower, and wholesale interest rates were little changed. More >>
The RBNZ Is In Focus This Week | The Kiwi Economy Requires Rate Relief, Quick
Monday, 7 October 2024, 8:01 pm | Kiwi Economics
Economic data suggests the need to return policy settings to neutral, quickly. Business confidence has markedly improved since the RBNZ’s policy pivot. But the current economic environment remains depressed and requires rate relief. More >>
The RBNZ Will Most Likely Cut 50bps Next Week, And Again In November. It’s The Easiest Thing To Do
Thursday, 3 October 2024, 5:25 pm | Kiwi Economics
If the RBNZ is serious about reducing the restrictiveness (not providing stimulus) of monetary policy, the market has opened them up for larger moves. Overly restrictive monetary policy has inflicted much pain and tamed the inflation beast. More >>
Off The Smell Of An Oily Rag: Business Confidence Improves Without Pricing Intentions
Tuesday, 1 October 2024, 5:58 pm | Kiwi Economics
According to Kiwi businesses, it is still a challenge to navigate the current economic environment. Experienced activity levels remain subdued. More >>
