Scoop has an Ethical Paywall
Scoop InfoPages
This InfoPage in unregistered, if this is your news page register Kiwi Economics for InfoPages here.
Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 1]
Inflation Expectations Up, Net Migration Down, Housing Staggers Sideways
Tuesday, 19 November 2024, 8:45 am | Kiwi Economics
The RBNZ has kept the Kiwi economy in a chokehold over the past couple of years to kill inflation. But now, the inflation beast has been slayed. And we need the RBNZ to loosen its grip fast – before doing any more unnecessary damage to the economy. More >>
Much More Mayhem In Markets, Maybe. Event Risks All Over The Show
Monday, 4 November 2024, 8:07 pm | Kiwi Economics
Rates markets are pricing in a bit more growth and a bit more inflation over the longer term. Some of that move reflects central bank easing. Cutting interest rates generates more growth and inflation. And some of that move reflects the risk of inflationary ... More >>
“The Global Battle Against Inflation Is Almost Won”
Thursday, 31 October 2024, 8:15 pm | Kiwi Economics
The IMF made no change to its global growth forecasts. The global economy is still expected to grow 3.2% this year and next, which the IMF describes as “stable yet underwhelming”. More >>
A Long Time Coming. Inflation Is Back Within The Band
Monday, 21 October 2024, 9:41 pm | Kiwi Economics
Tradables is the reason inflation has returned to 2%. And the eventual normalisation in domestic price pressures is why we see 2% sustained in the medium-term. More >>
The Cost-of-living Crisis Is Coming To An End, With Inflation Back Within The RBNZ’s Target Band
Wednesday, 16 October 2024, 3:50 pm | Kiwi Economics
Policy settings are still restrictive, but more interest rate cuts are coming. We expect another 50bp cut in Nov. Falling inflation, and falling interest rates will help household budgets, and business opex. More >>
Closing In On The 2% Target
Friday, 11 October 2024, 5:05 pm | Kiwi Economics
We now see inflation falling closer to the midpoint of the target band. Because recent monthly price data have shown that strong downward momentum in imported inflation continues. Falling petrol prices leads the way. More >>
Tack And Jibe Like An AC75. The RBNZ Delivers 50bp!
Wednesday, 9 October 2024, 5:20 pm | Kiwi Economics
The market reaction was relatively muted given that the outsized move was largely priced. An already soft Kiwi dollar was pushed slightly lower, and wholesale interest rates were little changed. More >>
The RBNZ Is In Focus This Week | The Kiwi Economy Requires Rate Relief, Quick
Monday, 7 October 2024, 8:01 pm | Kiwi Economics
Economic data suggests the need to return policy settings to neutral, quickly. Business confidence has markedly improved since the RBNZ’s policy pivot. But the current economic environment remains depressed and requires rate relief. More >>
The RBNZ Will Most Likely Cut 50bps Next Week, And Again In November. It’s The Easiest Thing To Do
Thursday, 3 October 2024, 5:25 pm | Kiwi Economics
If the RBNZ is serious about reducing the restrictiveness (not providing stimulus) of monetary policy, the market has opened them up for larger moves. Overly restrictive monetary policy has inflicted much pain and tamed the inflation beast. More >>
Off The Smell Of An Oily Rag: Business Confidence Improves Without Pricing Intentions
Tuesday, 1 October 2024, 5:58 pm | Kiwi Economics
According to Kiwi businesses, it is still a challenge to navigate the current economic environment. Experienced activity levels remain subdued. More >>
We Should Increase The Intensity Of Fiscal And Monetary Policies
Monday, 30 September 2024, 3:18 pm | Kiwi Economics
The next RBNZ monetary policy announcement is coming around quickly, on October 9th. We advocated for a cut in August, and now we’re advocating a 50bp cut in October and November. Why not? The economy needs it. More >>
Leapfrog: The Kiwi Currency Has Recalibrated, Higher, We Now Target 59c (up From 57c)
Tuesday, 24 September 2024, 4:19 pm | Kiwi Economics
It’s worth noting that the US economy has outperformed the Kiwi economy. And with these cuts, the US economy will continue to outperform. So, the question amongst traders and strategists is: if the Fed sees the need to cut 50bps with a stronger ... More >>
It Is Worth Considering 50bp Rate Cuts. The Fed Did It. And The Kiwi Economy Is In Worse Shape.
Monday, 23 September 2024, 7:02 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our latest economic report card proves that restrictive monetary policy has done enough damage to restrain inflationary pressures. More >>
Central Banks Remain In Focus, As The Herd Of Policymakers Head South For The Northern Winter
Monday, 16 September 2024, 2:06 am | Kiwi Economics
The Fed is expected to announce its first interest rate cut in four years next week, with debate ongoing between a 25bps and 50bps reduction amidst mixed economic indicators. More >>
The Dog Days Are Over. The RBNZ’s Rate Cut Has Shifted The Conversation For Households And Businesses.
Sunday, 15 September 2024, 11:14 pm | Kiwi Economics
Capping downside risk is the fact that the RBNZ has already begun the rate cutting cycle, bringing much needed relief to many businesses and households. More >>
The RBNZ Cuts, Because It Was The Right Thing To Do. And It’s The Magnitude That Matters Most.
Wednesday, 14 August 2024, 7:26 pm | Kiwi Economics
It’s the magnitude of rate cuts that impacts business decisions, and household confidence. We forecast, with a much greater degree of confidence, that 2025 will be a better year than 2024, and let’s put 2023 behind us. More >>
The Regions Show Signs Of Recovery. 2025 Will Be Better. Wellington Has Been Hit The Hardest.
Saturday, 10 August 2024, 4:26 pm | Kiwi Economics
Looking ahead, inflation is easing, interest rates will fall, and business confidence should strengthen. Spring is coming, and most regions will defrost. More >>
There’s More Slack In The Labour Market, As We Get Paid More Per Hour, But Get Fewer Hours
Wednesday, 7 August 2024, 2:36 pm | Kiwi Economics
Another surprise was the lift in the labour participation rate. After hitting a record high of 72.4% in June 2023, the participation rate had begun its descent. More >>
The Kiwi Labour Market Is Softening, Following A Recession. Unemployment Continues To Climb
Friday, 2 August 2024, 5:25 pm | Kiwi Economics
By our calculations, the unemployment rate likely lifted to 4.7% from 4.3%. That would mark the highest rate since the end of 2020. After being stuck at record low levels of 3.2%, the unemployment rate began to climb in June last year. More >>
The Pressure For RBNZ Rate Cuts Is Mounting, As Rates Markets Collapse
Tuesday, 30 July 2024, 6:48 pm | Kiwi Economics
Market traders are now pricing 15bps of cuts in August. That’s a 60% chance of a rate cut in just a couple weeks’ time. And looking ahead, traders have priced in just over 75bps of cuts by November. That’s a whopping 3 cuts (see the COTW). More >>
