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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 1]

Economic Recovery Not The Driver Of Prices

Monday, 20 July 2026, 3:53 pm | Kiwi Economics

The important part, from the RBNZ’s perspective, is the domestic (non-tradable) component of inflation. Domestic generated inflation will show how much (if any) of the fuel price increases are passing into local prices. More >>

Spike, Dig, Pass: Inflation Will Rise, But We’ll Dig In Until It Passes

Friday, 17 July 2026, 12:51 pm | Kiwi Economics

The June quarter inflation numbers will be ugly. That’s to be expected. The oil supply shock eased off a little in June, but not enough ease inflation fears. The consensus view is that June quarter inflation will print between 3.9% and 4.2%. March ... More >>

Cautious Optimism: Confidence Rises While Costs Creep Higher

Wednesday, 15 July 2026, 1:57 pm | Kiwi Economics

Business confidence has broadly improved in the June quarter, with a net 12% of businesses expecting better conditions in the coming months. This stands in stark contrast to the 1% of businesses expecting better conditions ahead in the March quarter. More >>

Matariki Rises And So Do Interest Rates

Tuesday, 14 July 2026, 8:50 am | Kiwi Economics

Our manufacturing industry has support from overseas demand and a weak Kiwi dollar, essentially making Kiwi goods go on sale for our closest trading partners. Data from China, our biggest trading partner, showed its manufacturing activity is strong. More >>

The RBNZ Decides To Pounce… Hiking Interest Rates

Friday, 10 July 2026, 11:42 am | Kiwi Economics

The Reserve Bank has increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points, to 2.5%. While we agree that a move up in interest rates was going to happen eventually, we disagree on the timing. More >>

A Stormy Sea Makes A Skilled Sailor

Tuesday, 30 June 2026, 7:20 am | Kiwi Economics

The conflict in the Middle East stirred up turbulence and uncertainty in markets, and drained Kiwi households of discretionary funds. More >>

The Calm Before The Storm. Check The Rigging Before You Set Sail

Wednesday, 10 June 2026, 2:19 pm | Kiwi Economics

Faced with the on-coming storm of the Middle East war, this is our chance to check the rigging, see how tight our bow lines were. And what weaknesses might the storm exploit and potentially capsize the Kiwi economy. More >>

Slacklining Into 2026. Walking The Stagflation Tightrope

Wednesday, 6 May 2026, 2:06 pm | Kiwi Economics

The labour force grew 0.1% over the quarter while the participation rate dropped to 70.4% from 70.5%. The underutilisation rate held at 13% (12.9% exactly, in fact). More >>

Plenty Of Capacity, Low Wage Inflation, And Many Scars To Come

Thursday, 30 April 2026, 9:37 pm | Kiwi Economics

It’s a slow burn, and the war in the Middle East is eating away at some of the fuel we needed. But it won’t show up in this round of data. Labour market tightening takes time, and requires business sentiment to stabilise and improve. More >>

We’re Stuck In The Waiting Room… Waiting

Tuesday, 28 April 2026, 8:22 pm | Kiwi Economics

Kiwis are already struggling, with the most vulnerable families and businesses feeling it most. Rate hikes are not the answer, in our view, and will not help solve the fuel cost crisis. This is not a demand shock that requires reining in. More >>

Awkward Inflation Numbers, Down-Beat Businesses, And Frustrated Romantics

Tuesday, 21 April 2026, 1:14 pm | Kiwi Economics

Tradables inflation accelerated, as expected, to 3.1% from 2.6%. Petrol spiked 3.5%, diesel 11.3%, over the quarter. And we will see another sharp push higher in the current June quarter. That we know. That we don’t like. More >>

Another Week, Another Set Of Conflicting Headlines

Monday, 20 April 2026, 11:18 am | Kiwi Economics

The war in the Middle East is still causing conflicting headlines. The market is responding to the volatility by reacting more strongly to the good news than the bad – we don’t mind that optimism. More >>

Better Than Bad? Or Worse Than Good?

Friday, 17 April 2026, 2:44 pm | Kiwi Economics

All eyes are on the inflation numbers out next week. The starting point for 2026 is likely to be 3.1%, the same run rate we finished 2025 on. More >>

Reckless Rate Hikes Unwarranted

Tuesday, 14 April 2026, 2:34 pm | Kiwi Economics

Trump’s failed peace talks over the weekend have us worried about inflation and most importantly, how Kiwi businesses are meant to weather yet another punch in the guts from inflated fuel prices. More >>

A Fragile Ceasefire, A Volatile Market, And A Balanced Governor. Without Peace We Cannot Heal

Monday, 13 April 2026, 12:05 pm | Kiwi Economics

We’re not out of the woods yet, and the next two weeks of ceasefire won’t bring swift relief. A much longer peace deal will need to hold for the Kiwi economy to stop feeling the pinch of fuel price increases and the threat of a diesel shortage. More >>