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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 2]
We Should Increase The Intensity Of Fiscal And Monetary Policies
Monday, 30 September 2024, 3:18 pm | Kiwi Economics
The next RBNZ monetary policy announcement is coming around quickly, on October 9th. We advocated for a cut in August, and now we’re advocating a 50bp cut in October and November. Why not? The economy needs it. More >>
Leapfrog: The Kiwi Currency Has Recalibrated, Higher, We Now Target 59c (up From 57c)
Tuesday, 24 September 2024, 4:19 pm | Kiwi Economics
It’s worth noting that the US economy has outperformed the Kiwi economy. And with these cuts, the US economy will continue to outperform. So, the question amongst traders and strategists is: if the Fed sees the need to cut 50bps with a stronger ... More >>
It Is Worth Considering 50bp Rate Cuts. The Fed Did It. And The Kiwi Economy Is In Worse Shape.
Monday, 23 September 2024, 7:02 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our latest economic report card proves that restrictive monetary policy has done enough damage to restrain inflationary pressures. More >>
Central Banks Remain In Focus, As The Herd Of Policymakers Head South For The Northern Winter
Monday, 16 September 2024, 2:06 am | Kiwi Economics
The Fed is expected to announce its first interest rate cut in four years next week, with debate ongoing between a 25bps and 50bps reduction amidst mixed economic indicators. More >>
The Dog Days Are Over. The RBNZ’s Rate Cut Has Shifted The Conversation For Households And Businesses.
Sunday, 15 September 2024, 11:14 pm | Kiwi Economics
Capping downside risk is the fact that the RBNZ has already begun the rate cutting cycle, bringing much needed relief to many businesses and households. More >>
The RBNZ Cuts, Because It Was The Right Thing To Do. And It’s The Magnitude That Matters Most.
Wednesday, 14 August 2024, 7:26 pm | Kiwi Economics
It’s the magnitude of rate cuts that impacts business decisions, and household confidence. We forecast, with a much greater degree of confidence, that 2025 will be a better year than 2024, and let’s put 2023 behind us. More >>
The Regions Show Signs Of Recovery. 2025 Will Be Better. Wellington Has Been Hit The Hardest.
Saturday, 10 August 2024, 4:26 pm | Kiwi Economics
Looking ahead, inflation is easing, interest rates will fall, and business confidence should strengthen. Spring is coming, and most regions will defrost. More >>
There’s More Slack In The Labour Market, As We Get Paid More Per Hour, But Get Fewer Hours
Wednesday, 7 August 2024, 2:36 pm | Kiwi Economics
Another surprise was the lift in the labour participation rate. After hitting a record high of 72.4% in June 2023, the participation rate had begun its descent. More >>
The Kiwi Labour Market Is Softening, Following A Recession. Unemployment Continues To Climb
Friday, 2 August 2024, 5:25 pm | Kiwi Economics
By our calculations, the unemployment rate likely lifted to 4.7% from 4.3%. That would mark the highest rate since the end of 2020. After being stuck at record low levels of 3.2%, the unemployment rate began to climb in June last year. More >>
The Pressure For RBNZ Rate Cuts Is Mounting, As Rates Markets Collapse
Tuesday, 30 July 2024, 6:48 pm | Kiwi Economics
Market traders are now pricing 15bps of cuts in August. That’s a 60% chance of a rate cut in just a couple weeks’ time. And looking ahead, traders have priced in just over 75bps of cuts by November. That’s a whopping 3 cuts (see the COTW). More >>
One Small Step For Inflation, One Giant Leap From The Peak
Wednesday, 17 July 2024, 4:45 pm | Kiwi Economics
We still think inflation is on track to fall below 3% in the current (September) quarter. And today’s progress on core inflation has us growing in confidence that the RBNZ’s 2% target will be achieved in 2025. More >>
The RBNZ Deliberately Softened Their Language, A Touch. We’re More Convinced Of A Cut In Nov.
Saturday, 13 July 2024, 2:08 pm | Kiwi Economics
Another MPR, and another hold. As expected, the RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50%. But importantly, we finally got a noticeable softening in tone. It was a welcome shift given the total collapse in business confidence last week. Enough is enough ... More >>
The Kiwi Currency Continues To Consolidate, With Captivating Carry. We’re Still Targeting 57c.
Thursday, 4 July 2024, 6:07 pm | Kiwi Economics
The downward glidepath for the Kiwi flyer will eventually help our exporters, with tourism and agriculture in need of a boost. More >>
Business Confidence Has Deteriorated, Again. RBNZ Rate Cuts Are Required, To Avoid Economic Scarring
Tuesday, 2 July 2024, 2:39 pm | Kiwi Economics
The NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion (QSBO), the best on the street, shows a clear deterioration in expectations. More >>
Elections Loom Large With Losses On The Left And A Leaning To Largesse. Inflation Is The Key For Policy.
Monday, 1 July 2024, 6:30 pm | Kiwi Economics
2024 is the year of elections. Over 80 countries – more than half of the world’s population – will head to the polls this year. More >>
Survive ‘til 25: It’s A White-Knuckle Ride. We’ve Updated Our Forecasts.
Saturday, 29 June 2024, 3:50 pm | Kiwi Economics
Over the past 18 months, the economy has been at a standstill, recording a double-dip recession. And the forward-looking indicators point to an economy that will struggle to eke out much growth in 2024. More >>
We Climbed Out Of A Recession. But Growth Is Weak.
Thursday, 27 June 2024, 5:08 am | Kiwi Economics
The Kiwi economy expanded 0.2% over the March quarter. It might be a positive print, but the details were weak, very weak. More >>
We May Have Popped Out Of A Double Dip Recession, But We’re Still Struggling…
Sunday, 23 June 2024, 6:23 pm | Kiwi Economics
The Kiwi economy expanded 0.2% over the March quarter. It follows the technical recession over the second half of 2024. We may officially be out of recession, but the economy remains in a soft state. More >>
Budget 2024: Delivering On Promises – Just – While Standing On Quicksand
Thursday, 30 May 2024, 5:58 pm | Kiwi Economics
Budget 2024 delivers on election promises, just. Fiscal neutrality was a key consideration, as revenue projections suffer from a bleaker reality. More >>
The Chance Of A Recession Increases As Business Confidence Hits An All-time Low.
Tuesday, 17 January 2023, 12:45 pm | Kiwi Economics
The chance of a recession increases as business confidence hits an all-time low. Mary Jo Vergara, Economist & Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist & Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist Published on 17 January Business confidence was shattered ... More >>
