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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 4]

Investment Boost: Just A Cherry On Top For Well-Placed Businesses?

Saturday, 30 August 2025, 5:31 pm | Kiwi Economics

Only one third of our Business Bankers reported an uptake of the initiative among clients — and even then, it was limited. More >>

From Relief To Stimulus, The RBNZ Signals More Meaningful Cuts To Come

Monday, 25 August 2025, 1:00 pm | Kiwi Economics

The OCR track was lowered a massive 30 points from a bottom of 2.85% to 2.55% in March 2026. What does that mean? This is important. The RBNZ has gone from signalling a 60% chance of one last 25bps move to 2.75% at the May MPS, to now an 80% chance ... More >>

There’s No Doubt The RBNZ Should Cut. And They Will. But There Is Doubt That They Will Do Enough.

Monday, 18 August 2025, 12:10 pm | Kiwi Economics

The economic data and developments since the last MPS have strengthened the case for a more “go for growth” focussed RBNZ. The RBNZ will have removed the restrictiveness of monetary policy… but that is not enough. More >>

The Pieces Have Fallen Into Place. Lower Rates Are Needed

Monday, 11 August 2025, 11:41 am | Kiwi Economics

At first glance, the June jobs report looked a bit better than expected. But under the microscope, the Kiwi labour market is clearly soft. The unemployment rate came in at 5.2%, slightly below our forecast of 5.3%. More >>

A Better Headline Masks Dicier Details. The Kiwi Labour Market Deteriorates Further

Wednesday, 6 August 2025, 7:07 pm | Kiwi Economics

Today’s data reinforces the need for further monetary policy easing. Downside risks to medium-term inflation are growing given the soft labour market and dimming global outlook. More >>

Love For Labour Is Lacking

Friday, 1 August 2025, 12:48 pm | Kiwi Economics

Domestic inflation is heading in the right direction. Next week’s labour market is the second test for an August rate cut. More >>

More Deals Done. We Need That. Because We’re Struggling With Uncertainty Across The Motu

Monday, 28 July 2025, 7:21 pm | Kiwi Economics

Our COTW looks at weakness in domestic inflation. Construction costs in particular have been growing at lower rates reminiscent of the GFC. Administered inflation, frustratingly, remains elevated. More >>

Headline Heads North. But Core Matters More.

Friday, 18 July 2025, 12:16 pm | Kiwi Economics

The rapid deceleration in imported inflation, which helped to pull down headline, is reversing course. We’re no longer importing deflation. The RBNZ May forecasts pencilled in a 0.9%yoy increase in imported inflation from 0.3%. More >>

Our Laterally Locked Housing Landscape Is Holding The Line. We’re Looking Ahead

Tuesday, 15 July 2025, 1:27 pm | Kiwi Economics

Investors have been hunted by policymakers, both from the last Government and RBNZ. Interest rate deductibility, Brightline tests, and laser focussed LVR restrictions have all targeted investors. More >>

The Ceasefire Bolstered Confidence, And Commodity Currencies

Monday, 30 June 2025, 7:57 pm | Kiwi Economics

Talking currencies, our COTW looks at the highly unusual soft USD, in such an uncertain world. It has many talking about a new world order, and the end of the USD as a reserve currency. But we argue that we have NOT seen a material move out of USDs. More >>

Vexing Volatility, Unusual Uncertainty, Polarising Protectionism… Is It The Beginning Of The End?

Wednesday, 25 June 2025, 9:14 pm | Kiwi Economics

Whilst the strength in the Kiwi (and Aussie) is surprising given the risks to global trade, we have NOT seen a material move out of USDs. We must acknowledge it may be the beginning of the end. Although the end is unlikely in our lifetimes. More >>

When Good Data Gets Buried In Uncertainty. And Inflation Is Eye-watering To Look Through

Monday, 23 June 2025, 8:03 pm | Kiwi Economics

Our COTW looks at the increase in inflationary pressures stemming from offshore. Food prices are up 4.4%, and oil prices are heading higher. More >>

Forecast Update: We’re Feeling Our Way Through

Monday, 16 June 2025, 8:18 pm | Kiwi Economics

Our COTW looks into the reversal in the manufacturing PMI, here at home. After four straight months of signalling expansion, the index is back in contractionary territory. More >>

We're In The Eye Of The Storm, As Tailwinds Become Headwinds

Monday, 9 June 2025, 8:29 pm | Kiwi Economics

Our COTW takes a look at the slowdown in US output, but rise in inflationary pressure. More >>

May Is Over, The Mayhem Is Not, And Markets Are Muddled

Tuesday, 3 June 2025, 12:02 pm | Kiwi Economics

Tariff volatility continues to dominate financial markets. The RBNZ’s latest statement alone mentioned the word uncertain, or some or a form of it, 164 times across their 60 or so page statement. More >>

The RBNZ Has Seen Enough To Cut More, But Not Enough To Do Enough

Wednesday, 28 May 2025, 6:34 pm | Kiwi Economics

The weakness in the economy is clear and demands more attention and less restriction. With all the risks offshore, think Trumpian tariffs, and the pain still felt onshore, there’s a good argument to be made for taking policy into stimulatory territory. More >>