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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 4]
Headline Heads North. But Core Matters More.
Friday, 18 July 2025, 12:16 pm | Kiwi Economics
The rapid deceleration in imported inflation, which helped to pull down headline, is reversing course. We’re no longer importing deflation. The RBNZ May forecasts pencilled in a 0.9%yoy increase in imported inflation from 0.3%. More >>
Our Laterally Locked Housing Landscape Is Holding The Line. We’re Looking Ahead
Tuesday, 15 July 2025, 1:27 pm | Kiwi Economics
Investors have been hunted by policymakers, both from the last Government and RBNZ. Interest rate deductibility, Brightline tests, and laser focussed LVR restrictions have all targeted investors. More >>
The Ceasefire Bolstered Confidence, And Commodity Currencies
Monday, 30 June 2025, 7:57 pm | Kiwi Economics
Talking currencies, our COTW looks at the highly unusual soft USD, in such an uncertain world. It has many talking about a new world order, and the end of the USD as a reserve currency. But we argue that we have NOT seen a material move out of USDs. More >>
Vexing Volatility, Unusual Uncertainty, Polarising Protectionism… Is It The Beginning Of The End?
Wednesday, 25 June 2025, 9:14 pm | Kiwi Economics
Whilst the strength in the Kiwi (and Aussie) is surprising given the risks to global trade, we have NOT seen a material move out of USDs. We must acknowledge it may be the beginning of the end. Although the end is unlikely in our lifetimes. More >>
When Good Data Gets Buried In Uncertainty. And Inflation Is Eye-watering To Look Through
Monday, 23 June 2025, 8:03 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at the increase in inflationary pressures stemming from offshore. Food prices are up 4.4%, and oil prices are heading higher. More >>
Forecast Update: We’re Feeling Our Way Through
Monday, 16 June 2025, 8:18 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks into the reversal in the manufacturing PMI, here at home. After four straight months of signalling expansion, the index is back in contractionary territory. More >>
We're In The Eye Of The Storm, As Tailwinds Become Headwinds
Monday, 9 June 2025, 8:29 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the slowdown in US output, but rise in inflationary pressure. More >>
May Is Over, The Mayhem Is Not, And Markets Are Muddled
Tuesday, 3 June 2025, 12:02 pm | Kiwi Economics
Tariff volatility continues to dominate financial markets. The RBNZ’s latest statement alone mentioned the word uncertain, or some or a form of it, 164 times across their 60 or so page statement. More >>
The RBNZ Has Seen Enough To Cut More, But Not Enough To Do Enough
Wednesday, 28 May 2025, 6:34 pm | Kiwi Economics
The weakness in the economy is clear and demands more attention and less restriction. With all the risks offshore, think Trumpian tariffs, and the pain still felt onshore, there’s a good argument to be made for taking policy into stimulatory territory. More >>
25 And Not Done. The RBNZ Has More Work To Do. More Cuts Are Required.
Friday, 23 May 2025, 6:35 pm | Kiwi Economics
The weakness in the economy is clear and demands more attention and less restriction. With all the risks offshore, think Trumpian tariffs, and the pain still felt onshore, there’s a good argument to be made for taking policy into stimulatory territory ... More >>
The “Growth” Budget In A Shrinking World
Thursday, 22 May 2025, 7:17 pm | Kiwi Economics
As well-telegraphed ahead of the big day, Budget 2025 revealed an economic outlook hampered by global uncertainty, resulting in a weaker fiscal outlook with a focus on consolidation. More >>
Deal Or No Deal: Dealing With The Cards Trump Dealt
Monday, 12 May 2025, 8:16 pm | Kiwi Economics
In some good news, we got the first trade ‘deal’ out of the US last week. The UK was lucky first, and managed to negotiate down the tariffs on steel and autos. Other countries running a trade surplus with the US, however, may not get as good. More >>
We’re Twiddling Our Thumbs, Waiting For Deals To Be Done. Right Now, We’re Only Getting Crumbs
Monday, 5 May 2025, 7:25 pm | Kiwi Economics
Locally, the focus is on labour market data – out Wednesday. By our calculations, the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 5.3% - the highest since 2016. More >>
It’s Mayhem, It's Messy And It’s Melodramatic
Monday, 28 April 2025, 5:46 pm | Kiwi Economics
The prospect of a global trade war will likely keep downward pressure on prices. Whether that’s a consequence of a slowdown in global economic growth or a diversion of trade marked at a discount. See our COTW for more. More >>
Kiss The Ring... Trade Negotiations Are Critical
Tuesday, 15 April 2025, 8:50 pm | Kiwi Economics
Financial markets were incredibly volatile. Risk assets were dumped and refuge sought – but not in the traditional places. See our COTW for more on the market mayhem. More >>
We’re Moving Forward To The Past, And Calling For A 2.5% Cash Rate, As We Were Last Year
Wednesday, 9 April 2025, 8:17 pm | Kiwi Economics
The outlook is weaker and global risks are escalating. The current environment simply demands more rate relief. And the Reserve Bank has rightly pronounced scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate. More >>
Business Confidence May Have Improved, But They Don’t Like Uncertainty. And Trump Revels In Uncertainty
Wednesday, 9 April 2025, 6:49 pm | Kiwi Economics
The violent volatility in markets happened after this survey was taken. What will firms make of the Trump tariff turmoil? Too much? Too soon? Too bad... which ain't good. Uncertainty kills growth. More >>
It’s Mayhem In Markets As Downside Risks Dominate Following Trump’s Tariffs
Monday, 7 April 2025, 7:24 pm | Kiwi Economics
A hundred years of reducing tariffs, and globalisation, is now reversing. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs will take the average rate of tariffs to the highest level since 1906, before the first world war. More >>
Baked Into The Cake, We Await Another Rate Cut. RBNZ To Deliver 25bps
Thursday, 3 April 2025, 8:53 pm | Kiwi Economics
A 25bp cut in April is “baked into the cake” so to speak. The rates market is perfectly priced, so we’re unlikely to see much reaction. And if rates won’t react, then neither should the currency. It’s offshore developments, namely tariff ... More >>
Trump Tariffs Have Been Fool Of Surprises. What’s In The Cards For April 2nd?
Monday, 31 March 2025, 7:55 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the latest monthly jobs data from Stats NZ. After some hefty declines over 2024, the pace of job losses continues to flatten out. We're slowly crawling out of recession, but it'll take time and more sustained demand before we ... More >>
