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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 3]
Kiwi Markets Play Copycat To Global Moves
Monday, 3 November 2025, 1:02 pm | Kiwi Economics
Last week’s moves in Kiwi rates and currency were largely driven by offshore developments. There has been no change to the domestic economic outlook. We still expect the RBNZ to deliver another 25bps at the November meeting. More >>
Trick Or Treat Or Turnaround? What Will The Kiwi Labour Market Reveal Next Week
Friday, 31 October 2025, 1:36 pm | Kiwi Economics
Next week’s data should reinforce the need for further monetary policy easing. Downside risks to medium-term inflation are growing given the soft labour market and dimming global outlook. More >>
Inflation Has Spiked, But Will Recede. The RBNZ Will Cut, To Plant The Seed
Tuesday, 28 October 2025, 2:09 pm | Kiwi Economics
The current December quarter is typically the weakest quarter for inflation with seasonally weak food prices as well as the usual retail discounting into Christmas. More >>
Up, Up, But Not Away. Inflation Is Not Here To Stay
Monday, 20 October 2025, 8:23 pm | Kiwi Economics
The move to 3% is unwanted. But it shouldn’t stand in the way of the RBNZ delivering further rate cuts. They should take comfort in underlying inflation which remains subdued. More >>
Above Target Today. Below Target Tomorrow
Friday, 17 October 2025, 7:43 pm | Kiwi Economics
Kiwi inflation data is due out on Monday. By our calculations, consumer prices likely rose 0.9% over the September quarter. More >>
Splurging On Essentials
Tuesday, 14 October 2025, 7:35 pm | Kiwi Economics
Fuelled by historically low interest rates and “lockdown savings”, consumer spending was strongest in 2022. Since then, spending has gently corrected lower. More >>
Business Confidence Shows The Fragility Of Our Re-Recovery
Tuesday, 7 October 2025, 1:40 pm | Kiwi Economics
Another theme that has continued over the past year is the weakness in firms’ own domestic trading activity. Again, a net 14% of firms reported a decline in activity over the quarter. More >>
Go Big For Bang For Buck. The RBNZ Should Go 50
Monday, 6 October 2025, 7:53 pm | Kiwi Economics
Beyond Wednesday, we expect a 25bps cut in November to 2.25%. There’s no doubt our fragile economic recovery needs some extra juice. Lower rates will set up the economy well for the summer trading period. More >>
The RBNZ Need To Do More. And More We Will Get
Monday, 22 September 2025, 8:47 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at the details of the Kiwi GDP numbers. Weakness was broad based with 10 out of the 16 industries in decline. It’s simply not what you’d expect a year after the severe recession. We should be recovering by now. More >>
The Economy Records A Deep Contraction, Proving Once Again The RBNZ Is Behind The Eight Ball. 50 For October.
Thursday, 18 September 2025, 12:45 pm | Kiwi Economics
The Kiwi economy didn’t just stall over the June quarter; it slammed into reverse. The 0.9% contraction over the quarter was much deeper than all forecasters had expected. More >>
It’s All About Unemployment And Inflation: Phillips Said It Best
Monday, 8 September 2025, 3:36 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at construction activity over the June quarter. With the housing market still depressed and interest rates not yet at enticing levels, construction activity continues to decline. More >>
It’s All About Unemployment And Inflation: Phillips Said It Best
Monday, 8 September 2025, 3:35 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at construction activity over the June quarter. With the housing market still depressed and interest rates not yet at enticing levels, construction activity continues to decline. More >>
All Quiet On The Investment Front. Firms Wait For An Economic Clearing
Monday, 1 September 2025, 1:49 pm | Kiwi Economics
Domestically, we had a relatively quiet week on the data front, so we spent some time reflecting on the Government’s ‘Investment Boost’ scheme that was announced back at the Budget in May. More >>
Investment Boost: Just A Cherry On Top For Well-Placed Businesses?
Saturday, 30 August 2025, 5:31 pm | Kiwi Economics
Only one third of our Business Bankers reported an uptake of the initiative among clients — and even then, it was limited. More >>
From Relief To Stimulus, The RBNZ Signals More Meaningful Cuts To Come
Monday, 25 August 2025, 1:00 pm | Kiwi Economics
The OCR track was lowered a massive 30 points from a bottom of 2.85% to 2.55% in March 2026. What does that mean? This is important. The RBNZ has gone from signalling a 60% chance of one last 25bps move to 2.75% at the May MPS, to now an 80% chance ... More >>
There’s No Doubt The RBNZ Should Cut. And They Will. But There Is Doubt That They Will Do Enough.
Monday, 18 August 2025, 12:10 pm | Kiwi Economics
The economic data and developments since the last MPS have strengthened the case for a more “go for growth” focussed RBNZ. The RBNZ will have removed the restrictiveness of monetary policy… but that is not enough. More >>
The Pieces Have Fallen Into Place. Lower Rates Are Needed
Monday, 11 August 2025, 11:41 am | Kiwi Economics
At first glance, the June jobs report looked a bit better than expected. But under the microscope, the Kiwi labour market is clearly soft. The unemployment rate came in at 5.2%, slightly below our forecast of 5.3%. More >>
A Better Headline Masks Dicier Details. The Kiwi Labour Market Deteriorates Further
Wednesday, 6 August 2025, 7:07 pm | Kiwi Economics
Today’s data reinforces the need for further monetary policy easing. Downside risks to medium-term inflation are growing given the soft labour market and dimming global outlook. More >>
Love For Labour Is Lacking
Friday, 1 August 2025, 12:48 pm | Kiwi Economics
Domestic inflation is heading in the right direction. Next week’s labour market is the second test for an August rate cut. More >>
More Deals Done. We Need That. Because We’re Struggling With Uncertainty Across The Motu
Monday, 28 July 2025, 7:21 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at weakness in domestic inflation. Construction costs in particular have been growing at lower rates reminiscent of the GFC. Administered inflation, frustratingly, remains elevated. More >>
