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Kiwi Economics - Latest News [Page 3]
Go Big For Bang For Buck. The RBNZ Should Go 50
Monday, 6 October 2025, 7:53 pm | Kiwi Economics
Beyond Wednesday, we expect a 25bps cut in November to 2.25%. There’s no doubt our fragile economic recovery needs some extra juice. Lower rates will set up the economy well for the summer trading period. More >>
The RBNZ Need To Do More. And More We Will Get
Monday, 22 September 2025, 8:47 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at the details of the Kiwi GDP numbers. Weakness was broad based with 10 out of the 16 industries in decline. It’s simply not what you’d expect a year after the severe recession. We should be recovering by now. More >>
The Economy Records A Deep Contraction, Proving Once Again The RBNZ Is Behind The Eight Ball. 50 For October.
Thursday, 18 September 2025, 12:45 pm | Kiwi Economics
The Kiwi economy didn’t just stall over the June quarter; it slammed into reverse. The 0.9% contraction over the quarter was much deeper than all forecasters had expected. More >>
It’s All About Unemployment And Inflation: Phillips Said It Best
Monday, 8 September 2025, 3:36 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at construction activity over the June quarter. With the housing market still depressed and interest rates not yet at enticing levels, construction activity continues to decline. More >>
It’s All About Unemployment And Inflation: Phillips Said It Best
Monday, 8 September 2025, 3:35 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at construction activity over the June quarter. With the housing market still depressed and interest rates not yet at enticing levels, construction activity continues to decline. More >>
All Quiet On The Investment Front. Firms Wait For An Economic Clearing
Monday, 1 September 2025, 1:49 pm | Kiwi Economics
Domestically, we had a relatively quiet week on the data front, so we spent some time reflecting on the Government’s ‘Investment Boost’ scheme that was announced back at the Budget in May. More >>
Investment Boost: Just A Cherry On Top For Well-Placed Businesses?
Saturday, 30 August 2025, 5:31 pm | Kiwi Economics
Only one third of our Business Bankers reported an uptake of the initiative among clients — and even then, it was limited. More >>
From Relief To Stimulus, The RBNZ Signals More Meaningful Cuts To Come
Monday, 25 August 2025, 1:00 pm | Kiwi Economics
The OCR track was lowered a massive 30 points from a bottom of 2.85% to 2.55% in March 2026. What does that mean? This is important. The RBNZ has gone from signalling a 60% chance of one last 25bps move to 2.75% at the May MPS, to now an 80% chance ... More >>
There’s No Doubt The RBNZ Should Cut. And They Will. But There Is Doubt That They Will Do Enough.
Monday, 18 August 2025, 12:10 pm | Kiwi Economics
The economic data and developments since the last MPS have strengthened the case for a more “go for growth” focussed RBNZ. The RBNZ will have removed the restrictiveness of monetary policy… but that is not enough. More >>
The Pieces Have Fallen Into Place. Lower Rates Are Needed
Monday, 11 August 2025, 11:41 am | Kiwi Economics
At first glance, the June jobs report looked a bit better than expected. But under the microscope, the Kiwi labour market is clearly soft. The unemployment rate came in at 5.2%, slightly below our forecast of 5.3%. More >>
A Better Headline Masks Dicier Details. The Kiwi Labour Market Deteriorates Further
Wednesday, 6 August 2025, 7:07 pm | Kiwi Economics
Today’s data reinforces the need for further monetary policy easing. Downside risks to medium-term inflation are growing given the soft labour market and dimming global outlook. More >>
Love For Labour Is Lacking
Friday, 1 August 2025, 12:48 pm | Kiwi Economics
Domestic inflation is heading in the right direction. Next week’s labour market is the second test for an August rate cut. More >>
More Deals Done. We Need That. Because We’re Struggling With Uncertainty Across The Motu
Monday, 28 July 2025, 7:21 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at weakness in domestic inflation. Construction costs in particular have been growing at lower rates reminiscent of the GFC. Administered inflation, frustratingly, remains elevated. More >>
Headline Heads North. But Core Matters More.
Friday, 18 July 2025, 12:16 pm | Kiwi Economics
The rapid deceleration in imported inflation, which helped to pull down headline, is reversing course. We’re no longer importing deflation. The RBNZ May forecasts pencilled in a 0.9%yoy increase in imported inflation from 0.3%. More >>
Our Laterally Locked Housing Landscape Is Holding The Line. We’re Looking Ahead
Tuesday, 15 July 2025, 1:27 pm | Kiwi Economics
Investors have been hunted by policymakers, both from the last Government and RBNZ. Interest rate deductibility, Brightline tests, and laser focussed LVR restrictions have all targeted investors. More >>
The Ceasefire Bolstered Confidence, And Commodity Currencies
Monday, 30 June 2025, 7:57 pm | Kiwi Economics
Talking currencies, our COTW looks at the highly unusual soft USD, in such an uncertain world. It has many talking about a new world order, and the end of the USD as a reserve currency. But we argue that we have NOT seen a material move out of USDs. More >>
Vexing Volatility, Unusual Uncertainty, Polarising Protectionism… Is It The Beginning Of The End?
Wednesday, 25 June 2025, 9:14 pm | Kiwi Economics
Whilst the strength in the Kiwi (and Aussie) is surprising given the risks to global trade, we have NOT seen a material move out of USDs. We must acknowledge it may be the beginning of the end. Although the end is unlikely in our lifetimes. More >>
When Good Data Gets Buried In Uncertainty. And Inflation Is Eye-watering To Look Through
Monday, 23 June 2025, 8:03 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks at the increase in inflationary pressures stemming from offshore. Food prices are up 4.4%, and oil prices are heading higher. More >>
Forecast Update: We’re Feeling Our Way Through
Monday, 16 June 2025, 8:18 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW looks into the reversal in the manufacturing PMI, here at home. After four straight months of signalling expansion, the index is back in contractionary territory. More >>
We're In The Eye Of The Storm, As Tailwinds Become Headwinds
Monday, 9 June 2025, 8:29 pm | Kiwi Economics
Our COTW takes a look at the slowdown in US output, but rise in inflationary pressure. More >>
